How successful were this summer’s monsoon forecasts?

Let’s look at how successful the seasonal forecasts of monsoon rainfall were for early summer.  There were deadly floods in Southeast Asia and Africa; India had less rain than usual over the country as a whole, but floods that killed hundreds of people in some of its states … how forewarned were we? (read more)

Current monsoon season’s rainfall anomaly:

The above map shows the anomalous rain accumulation for the current season (northern hemisphere summer). You can also see animations of rainfall anomalies during previous seasons.

Data comes from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center’s Unified Gauge-based Analysis of Global Daily Precipitation. The above anomaly is accumulated from the start of the current summer season and computed relative to a daily climatology from 2006-2016.

Monsoons are:

  • continental-scale circulations that deliver water to billions of people
  • a seasonal reorganization of global atmospheric flow that is driven by the sun
  • dominant climate features in Africa, Asia, Australia, and the tropical Americas