Here are forecasts for the West African monsoon, which brings rain to the vast region of the Sahel just south of the Sahara desert.

Forecast for wind and precipitation

This animation shows the forecast of precipitation (color shading) and horizontal winds at 850 hPa, which is about 1.5 km above sea level.  The precipitation is the accumulation over the previous 6-hour period, in millimeters (1 inch = 25 mm), and winds are measured in m/s (1 m/s = 2.2 miles per hour).  This is from a single deterministic forecast.  The red box outlines the region over which the total accumulation of rainfall for this season (shown below) is averaged.

All forecast data is from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) of the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).  All forecasts use an initial atmospheric state at the time indicated on the plot (note that 00Z is midnight Universal Coordinated Time, which is 1 am in central Africa or 8 pm the previous day in New York [EDT]).

Seasonal rain accumulation

Also for the Sahel (red box in the above map), the below plots show the daily rainfall and the total seasonal accumulation of precipitation, compared to the historical average.

Here you’ll find several types of forecasts:

• global, deterministic forecasts for the next 3 days
• probabilistic forecasts for several sites for the next 5 days:
  • Kolkata (the Indian monsoon)
  • Cameroon (the West African monsoon)
  • Puerto Vallarta (the North American monsoon)
  • New Haven, Connecticut, USA (far from any monsoon region, but the physical home of this website)

Here are forecasts and rain accumulations for a point near Kumbo, Cameroon at 6.26°N, 10.95°E.

Forecast for wind and precipitation

This animation shows the forecast of precipitation (color shading) and horizontal winds about 1.5 km above sea level.  The precipitation is the accumulation over the previous 6-hour period, in millimeters (1 inch = 25 mm), and winds are measured in m/s (1 m/s = 2.2 miles per hour).  This is from a single deterministic forecast.

Seasonal rain accumulation

The below plots show the daily rainfall and the total seasonal accumulation of precipitation, compared to the historical average, for our point of interest (shown by the red star in the above map).

All forecast data is from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) of the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).  All forecasts use an initial atmospheric state at the time indicated on the plot (note that 00Z is midnight Universal Coordinated Time, which is 1 am in central Africa or 8 pm the previous day in New York [EDT]).

Latest updates from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network

FEWS NET was created by USAID in 1985 to help with advance planning for possible humanitarian crises.  They do not have staff in Cameroon, but monitor it from a neighboring country.  Be sure to look at their latest updates on Cameroon, (always click through to “Read More” at the bottom), and also view their analyses of agriculture supply and price trends.

While the African monsoon that is most widely known lies north of the equator and takes place during the northern hemisphere’s summer, a monsoonal circulation does exist over the southern part of the continent during the southern hemisphere’s summer.  The precipitation maximum during this season stretches from Angola on the west coast of southern Africa all the way to Madagascar.

Forecast for wind and precipitation

This animation shows the forecast of precipitation (color shading) and horizontal winds at 850 hPa, which is about 1.5 km above sea level. The precipitation is the accumulation over the previous 6-hour period, in millimeters (1 inch = 25 mm), and winds are measured in m/s (1 m/s = 2.2 miles per hour). This is from a single deterministic forecast. The red box outlines the region over which the total accumulation of rainfall for this season (shown below) is averaged.

All forecast data is from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) of the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). All forecasts use an initial atmospheric state at the time indicated on the plot (note that 00Z is midnight Universal Coordinated Time, which is 2 am in central Africa [e.g. Johannesburg] or 7 pm in New York [EDT]).

Seasonal accumulation

The below plots show the daily rainfall and the total seasonal accumulation of precipitation for southern Africa (averaged over the red box shown above), compared to the historical average.