For the past three and a half months, Arizonans have faced substantial rains as a result of a heavy monsoon season. Arizona’s monsoon season usually lasts from June to September, bringing with it dust storms, thunderstorms, and hurricanes. The monsoon is influenced by winds originating in Mexico, pushing moisture Southwest though Arizona.

A strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean may have contributed to the occurrence of tropical storms and hurricanes in this year’s monsoon. Some rains were particularly heavy, and the strong but sporadic monsoon was made up of both large rainstorms and smaller microbursts. While certain areas in northern Arizona remained dry, Phoenix and its surrounding areas received between 3.5 and 5.5 inches of rainfall.

The rains began earlier than usual, with the emergence of Hurricane Blanca in June. By the end of June, rain levels were above average in much of Arizona. July saw a slight drop in precipitation, but the monsoon quickly recovered. Since then, several other storms have poured down on Arizona, including Hurricane Linda in September. The monsoon was the 35^th wettest since 1896, and came to an end on Wednesday, September 30^th.

According to the National Weather Service, some areas of Flagstaff, Phoenix, and Tucson received more than double the average monsoon season rainfall. These rains have helped to ease Arizona’s drought; today, nearly 57% of the state is no longer facing drought conditions. This is the highest percentage in five years.

Temperatures during this year’s monsoon were also warmer than usual. Throughout the monsoon season, Phoenix cooled to only 86 degrees. Temperatures in the southern parts of Arizona stayed high, as well. Daily lows in Yuma, for example, averaged the new high record of roughly 83 degrees. Last month was one of the warmest Septembers on record in Arizona.

Forceful monsoon storms threatened Arizonans and destroyed property throughout the state. Strong winds and hurricanes uprooted trees, blew off roofs, and tore down fences, forcing many families out of their homes. Weather conditions necessitated school and road closures in other parts of the state.

Monsoon rains have also caused dangerous and fatal flooding. A mid-September flash flood and resulting mudslide killed 16 people on the Utah-Arizona border. In Mesa, Arizona 200 homes were flooded by monsoon rains before responders were able to open a floodgate. Dozens of cars across Arizona have been trapped in flash flooding, as well.

Many of Arizona’s cities lack the necessary infrastructure to protect citizens from monsoon rains. In response to this problem, the state government has implemented several programs to strengthen recovery efforts and fortify infrastructure. In Phoenix, for example, $7.5 million has been allocated towards emergency response programs and the building of a 36-acre storm water retention basin to contain rainfall.

According to a representative from the Phoenix office of the National Weather Service, there is a sixty to seventy percent possibility of Arizona’s winter having an above average rainfall. As warm-weather conditions caused by El Niño migrate through Arizona, snowfall may be delayed until later in the year. The National Weather Service predicts that snow many not begin until late December.

By Harland Dahl

In June, the India Meteorological Department published a seasonal forecast predicting that the southwest monsoon would bring “below normal” levels of rain to India at 90% of average rainfall. As of August 10^th, monsoon rainfall was below this prediction by 6%, at 84% of average rainfall.

Today, India faces a 16% rainfall deficit. As a result, Indian communities are feeling the strains of water shortages as they enter into a second year of drought. According to recent meteorological data, the southwest monsoon could begin to withdraw from northwest India in the next three or four days. The monsoon has already withdrawn from parts of Rajasthan, Punjab and  Haryana, and now appears to be passing through Amritsar, Hisar, Ajmer, and Barmer.

This would leave one quarter of the country in a rain deficit. In fact, 91 key reservoirs across India have recorded less water reserves as compared to this period last year. Reservoirs in the South face the most serious deficiencies, with reservoirs in East and West India facing less severe deficits.

On September 10^th, the 91 key reservoirs were recorded as filling only 59% of their storage capacity. An official statement released Friday by the Ministry of Water Resources explained that, “This storage is 77% of the storage of corresponding period of last year and 81% of storage of average of last 10 years.”

Indian citizens are already experiencing the impact of these rainfall deficits. In response to low reservoir water levels, the Water Resources Department has restricted the amount of water used for purposes of power generation.

Resulting power shortages have led to multiple unscheduled power cuts over the last week in the Indian state of Odisha. Power suppliers are now in the process of implementing statewide scheduled power usage regulations to conserve energy until the situation improves. Power shutoffs in urban areas are expected to be from one to two hours long, while rural areas will face more severe restrictions.

Deficient monsoon rains may also lead to low agricultural yields. The southwest monsoon’s rains irrigate almost half of India’s agricultural land, including many small family farms. Forecasts predict that this year will be the driest since 2009, leaving soil too dry to sustain winter crops.

Earlier this week, RPG Foundation President D. H. Pai Panandiker explained that the weak monsoon could cause agricultural production to fall by nearly 3% this year. Poor families living in rural areas could bear the brunt of this decrease, as many poor Indian families rely on crops from small family farms for sustenance and economic stability.

Although shortages as a whole have increased, some states have collected more water this year than the last. These include Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Tripura, Gujarat, Uttarakhand and Madhya Pradesh. While rains from these areas have not been sufficient to make up for the water deficit, they have caused dangerous flooding in hundreds of Indian villages.

As of September 1^st, nearly 800,000 Indian citizens had been forced to leave their homes, and 21 others were killed as a result of the floods. India’s disaster management authority announced that 168 relief camps were sheltering nearly 50,000 of those displaced by the flooding.

By Harland Dahl

Twelve of Myanmar’s fourteen regions are facing severe flooding, a result of abnormally heavy monsoon rains. Flash flooding and landslides have affected more than 330,000 of Myanmar’s people and killed 88 others, according to the country’s Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief, and Resettlement.

In the last few weeks, monsoon rains have swept through much of South and Southeast Asia, killing hundreds and displacing millions. In Myanmar, this monsoon has affected many of the country’s poorest who often live in low-lying regions most vulnerable to flooding.

The states hit hardest by heavy rains and flooding include Rakhine and Chin. The state of Rakhine has suffered the most casualties; Cyclone Komen killed 57 people in Rakhine last week.

Other people of Myanmar most at risk include those living in the southwest Ayeyarwady delta region, home to 12 percent of Myanmar’s population. Myanmar President Thein Sein has instructed inhabitants to seek shelter on higher land as the region’s rivers start to rise. In response to this and other warnings, many people of Myanmar have taken refuge in monasteries and makeshift shelters to protect themselves from the monsoon and the dangers it brings.

Myanmar’s flooding threatens not only homes and infrastructure, but has also destroyed crucial agricultural land and resources. This loss of resources, including 200,000 acres of destroyed farmland, could mean heightened levels of malnutrition for Myanmar’s poorest. Dom Scalpelli, director of the United Nation’s World Food Programme, explained, “Thousands of people have lost their homes, livelihoods, crops, and existing food and seed stocks. Food security will be seriously affected [by the monsoon].”

The government of Myanmar, which took power in 2011 and will face elections this November, is facing criticism from citizens for its response to the monsoon. Although the government has attempted to relocate at-risk people and rebuild communities, it has been accused of understating the magnitude of the crisis and being slow to warn citizens of impending dangers. Last week, the New Light of Myanmar, a government-owned newspaper, conceded that, “the government’s weak response to the disaster led to misunderstandings about evacuation efforts.”

On August 4^th, the government of Myanmar announced that it had appealed for international assistance to provide relief for its people in the forms of temporary shelter, food, and clothing. A spokesman for the president’s office explained, “We are cooperating and inviting international assistance. We have started contacting possible donor organizations and countries. “

Myanmar is now receiving aid from various organizations and countries, including the United Nations, Save the Children, and the government of Australia. On August 7^th, the United Nations authorized $9 million in aid from the UN Central Emergency Response Fund to be allocated to aid organizations working in Myanmar.

These funds are intended to speed up relief efforts by helping to provide emergency shelters, safe food and water supplies, improved sanitation services, and emergency health care. As of this week, over 387 metric tons of food and 620,000 water treatment tablets have been distributed to the people of Myanmar.

Government research centers and universities around the world are predicting that 2015 will bring a strong El Nino event. On NOAA’s ENSO blog, Emily Becker from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, writes, “forecasters currently favor a ‘strong’ event for the fall/early winter”. The UK Met Office has also indicated that their models “suggest that this El Nino could strengthen from September onwards”. Some scientists are even warning that current conditions are reminiscent of the 1997 El Nino – the most severe on record. A report released by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology notes the abnormally warm sea-surface temperature observed in the Pacific Ocean over the last 2 weeks: “It is unusual to have such a broad extent of warmth across the tropical Pacific; this has not been seen since the El Niño event of 1997-98.”

An El Nino event entails warmer than usual sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which in turn impact weather systems around the world — triggering high temperatures, poor monsoons, and drought in Asia and east Africa, while causing heavy rains and floods in South America. Prof. Adam Scaife, of the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre, said “With the current event, things like the Indian monsoon, tropical West Africa, the maritime continent [Indonesia], and Australian impacts are all appearing in current forecasts – all of those regions are at increased risk of drought.”

El Nino events occur approximately every 2 to 7 years as part of a natural ocean-atmospheric cycle, though some research suggests that extreme El Nino events will become more frequent under climate change. Additionally, this year’s El Nino event could prompt record-breaking global temperatures, as the first four months of 2015 have already been the warmest on record according to the NOAA and NASA.

A strong El Nino will be extremely hazardous for countries whose economies are highly dependent on agriculture, with crop failure and rising food prices creating food insecurity. The arrival of El Nino is most significant in regions where the main cropping season has just begun, such as in South Asia and West Africa; rain-fed rice production in South and Southeast Asia will be affected by the suppressed monsoon rains. In 2009, El Nino caused the worst drought in 40 years in India. In an interview with Reuters, K.K. Singh, the Head of the Agricultural Meteorology Division of the Indian Weather Office noted, “Crops like soybean and cotton are under El Nino watch for being sown mainly in rainfed conditions. El Nino looms large over soybean areas of the central parts and cotton belts of the western and the northern regions.”

A strong El Nino year is likely to disrupt food markets and elevate prices of staple food crops such as rice, coffee, sugar and cocoa. Some reports estimate that an El Nino event can cause tens of billions of dollars of economic damage to the Asia-Pacific region. In a country like Indonesia, where the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors account for 18% of the GDP, historically, El Nino events have caused a percentage drop in the GDP and spiked inflation.

by Nina Horstmann

On April 25, a 7.9 magnitude earthquake struck Nepal. While reports about the extent of damage in rural areas are still trickling in, the UN currently estimates that over 8 million people have been affected by the quake and the Nepali government has accounted for over 7,000 fatalities. Since the quake, persistent aftershocks have triggered further avalanches and landslides, compounding the destruction. In addition to the capital city of Kathmandu, remote mountainous areas of Nepal have been particularly impacted, yet the ability of relief efforts to reach these areas has been impeded by the devastation.

The South Asian monsoon circulation brings rainfall to Nepal from June to September; during these 3 months the southwest monsoon brings more than 75% of the annual rainfall. The monsoon is critical for agricultural production in Nepal, which relies on monsoon rains for irrigation. According to the Nepali Department of Agriculture, the agriculture sector employs 2/3 of the population and makes up nearly 35% of the GDP.

Impending monsoon rains may frustrate relief efforts. Sienna Craig, a professor of Anthropology at Dartmouth University who has worked in Nepal for over 20 years, notes that monsoon rains will bring further challenges to the region, complicating access to clean water and triggering landslides that may frustrate reconstruction efforts. Pre-monsoon rains have already curtailed humanitarian aid in the region.

The seasonal monsoon brings heavy daily rains, as well as the threat of floods or landslides. Last year, torrential monsoon rains in Nepal caused multiple landslides and flooding; a particularly fatal landslide demolished an entire village east of Kathmandu, killing 156 people. Landslides may cause further fatalities, destroy makeshift shelters, and wipe out roads. Efforts by relief teams to reach remote regions may be hampered by rains that make it difficult for helicopters to fly and by landslides that bury roads in rubble.

Rownak Khan, the UNICEF deputy representative in Nepal, has stated that the forthcoming monsoon season is a concern, as deadly disease outbreaks could be triggered by the wet and muddy conditions. “Hospitals are overflowing, water is scarce, bodies are still buried under the rubble and people are still sleeping in the open. This is a perfect breeding ground for diseases,” said Khan. Another UNICEF spokesperson, Chris Tidey, warned that the prevalence of diarrheal diseases, respiratory illnesses, measles and cholera will soar during the monsoon season if people are living in the open during heavy rains. Thirteen UK humanitarian organizations that are involved in relief efforts in the country cautioned that the hundreds of thousands living outdoors will be vulnerable to the coming monsoon. Many are currently living in the open, camping outdoors or in makeshift shelters, because 130,000 homes have been flattened by the quake.

As medical expert Dr. Nikhil Joshi forewarns, “We often look at things in terms of death toll from a disaster. But that really only tells a fraction of the story.” Humanitarian relief to Nepal will be an ongoing trial, especially given the logistical difficulties of providing appropriate goods and services in a mountainous region that will soon be subject to the hydrological extremes of the monsoon season.  People who are considering donating to the relief efforts might consider the particular efforts that have been recommended by the Yale Himalaya Initiative.